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Metric Troubleshooting

Why metrics seem "wrong" and how to understand them.

Quick Answer​

Most "wrong" metrics are correct—just misunderstood.

If your metric seems wrong:       → Likely reason:
├─ Reorder Qty too high/low       → Data inputs wrong OR settings need adjustment
├─ Days to Order doesn't match    → Calculation using different logic than you
├─ Grade changed suddenly         → Your business metrics actually changed
├─ Sales at Risk seems huge       → It's real, you need to order soon
├─ Safety Stock seems arbitrary   → Based on your lead time + variability
└─ All appear broken              → Underlying data is stale or wrong

Before Troubleshooting: The Process​

Every metric is built this way:

INPUT DATA
├─ On-hand inventory
├─ Daily sales rate
├─ Lead time (days to receive from supplier)
├─ Safety stock level
├─ Forecast demand
└─ Product settings

    ↓ CALCULATION (Math formula)

OUTPUT METRIC
├─ To Buy (Reorder Qty)
├─ Days to Order (when to reorder)
├─ Days to Stockout (when you run out)
├─ Sales at Risk (money at risk)
├─ Grade (A/B/C/D)
└─ Others

If metric seems wrong, usually:

Step 1: Check inputs → Are they correct?
Step 2: Understand calculation → How does math work?
Step 3: Accept result → If inputs right, metric is right
Step 4: Adjust inputs → If metric should be different

Problem 1: Reorder Quantity Seems Too High​

Symptom​

"To Buy shows 500 units, but I only think I need 100"

Example:
├─ Current on-hand: 20 units
├─ Daily sales rate: 10 units/day
├─ Lead time: 3 days
├─ Safety stock: 50 units
├─ Metric says: To Buy = 500 units
└─ You think: "That's way too much!"

Why This Happens​

Check each input:

Step 1: On-hand inventory
├─ Is 20 units correct?
├─ Check Shopify, verify it matches
├─ If wrong → Sync first, then recalculate
└─ If correct → Continue

Step 2: Daily sales rate
├─ Is 10 units/day accurate?
├─ Check your actual sales average
├─ If you sell 15/day, that's wrong
├─ If it's been dropping from 10 to 5, that's wrong
└─ This is critical for calculation

Step 3: Lead time
├─ Does it really take 3 days to get stock?
├─ Or is it 7 days from this supplier?
├─ Lead time hugely impacts reorder qty
├─ Wrong lead time = Wrong reorder qty

Step 4: Safety stock
├─ Is 50 units appropriate?
├─ Or should it be 20 units?
├─ This is a buffer for surprises
└─ Affects how much to order

Step 5: Forecast
├─ Is demand expected to stay at 10/day?
├─ Or spike to 20/day next month?
├─ Growing demand = Order more
└─ Declining demand = Order less

Understand the Calculation​

Reorder Qty (To Buy) formula:

Amount needed to order = 
   (Daily Sales × Lead Time) 
   + Safety Stock 
   - Current On-Hand

Example:
├─ (10 units/day × 3 days) = 30 units (cover lead time)
├─ + 50 units (safety stock buffer)
├─ - 20 units (currently on hand)
└─ = 60 units to order

But metric shows 500? Something is wrong with inputs.

Fix: Verify Inputs​

Step 1: Check on-hand inventory (2 minutes)

Step 2: Check daily sales rate (2 minutes)

  • Look at last 30 days of sales
  • Calculate: Total sales ÷ 30 days = Daily rate
  • Does Synplex match your calculation?
  • If using different rate → That explains metric

Step 3: Check lead time (1 minute)

  • Ask supplier: How long to deliver?
  • Is it 3 days or 14 days?
  • Check your Synplex setting
  • Wrong lead time = Wrong metric

Step 4: Check safety stock (1 minute)

  • Look at your settings
  • Is it 50 units or 200 units?
  • Is that appropriate for daily variability?
  • Too high = Order too much

Step 5: Adjust if needed (2-5 minutes)

  • If lead time is wrong, update it
  • If safety stock is too high, reduce it
  • If sales rate is wrong, note the correct one
  • Metric recalculates with new inputs

Result​

After verification:

If all inputs are correct:
├─ Metric is right, even if you don't like the number
├─ You need to order more than you thought
├─ Reason: Larger safety stock or longer lead time
└─ Action: Accept and order

If inputs are wrong:
├─ Fix the input
├─ Metric recalculates
└─ Should make more sense now

Problem 2: Days to Order Doesn't Match Intuition​

Symptom​

"Metric says order in 5 days, but I think it should be 10"

Example:
├─ Current on-hand: 100 units
├─ Daily sales: 5 units/day
├─ At this rate, lasts: 100 ÷ 5 = 20 days
├─ Metric says "Days to Order: 5"
└─ You think: "Why only 5 days? I have 20!"

Why This Happens​

The metric is calculating differently than you.

Your mental math:
├─ I have 100 units
├─ Sell 5/day
├─ That's 20 days of supply
└─ Conclusion: Order in 20 days

Synplex calculation:
├─ I have 100 units
├─ Need 50 units safety stock
├─ Actually only have 50 available to sell
├─ At 5/day, that's 10 days left
├─ Lead time is 5 days
├─ Must order when I have 5 days of supply left
├─ Because new stock arrives in 5 days
└─ Order NOW (today = Day 0)

Understand the Calculation​

Days to Order formula:

Days to Order = 
   (On-Hand - Safety Stock) ÷ Daily Sales - Lead Time

Example:
├─ (100 - 50) ÷ 5 - 5
├─ = 50 ÷ 5 - 5
├─ = 10 - 5
└─ = 5 days

So: Order in 5 days (order arrives when safety stock hits)

Key Insight​

The metric accounts for:

  1. Safety stock you need to maintain
  2. Lead time from supplier
  3. Your actual depletion rate

Your intuition misses:

  1. You can't use safety stock for sales
  2. New order takes days to arrive
  3. If you wait 20 days, you'll be out of stock at day 15

Accept the Metric​

After understanding:

The metric is RIGHT.
├─ It accounts for lead time
├─ It accounts for safety stock
├─ It tells you WHEN to order, not WHAT to order
└─ Trust the calculation

Your intuition was incomplete.
├─ You were counting available units
├─ But forgetting lead time
├─ And forgetting safety stock necessity
└─ Metric corrects for these factors

Verify Inputs (Optional)​

If you still disagree:

Check these settings:
├─ Lead time: Is it truly 5 days? Or 10?
├─ Safety stock: Is 50 units right? Or too high?
├─ Daily sales rate: Is it really 5/day?
└─ On-hand inventory: Is it truly 100?

If all correct → Metric is right, accept it
If any wrong → Fix it, metric recalculates

Problem 3: My Grade Changed Suddenly​

Symptom​

"My Grade was A yesterday, now it's C. Nothing changed."

Example:
├─ Yesterday: Grade A (Excellent)
├─ Today: Grade C (Needs Attention)
├─ You didn't change anything
├─ What happened?

Why This Happens​

Your business metrics changed.

Possible reasons:
├─ Sales dropped → Grade reflects lower demand
├─ Profit margin decreased → Grade reflects lower profit
├─ Inventory too high → Grade reflects overstock risk
├─ Inventory too low → Grade reflects stockout risk
├─ Cash flow worsened → Grade reflects working capital
└─ Some combination of above

Grade recalculates based on:

├─ Sales volume (daily/monthly)
├─ Profit margin (revenue vs cost)
├─ Inventory level (appropriate for sales?)
├─ Turnover rate (how fast stock moves)
├─ Stock-out risk (could you run out soon?)
└─ Overall business health

Understand Grade​

Grade is automated health check:

Grade A: Excellent
├─ Good sales volume
├─ Healthy margins
├─ Optimal inventory
├─ Low stockout risk
└─ Efficient working capital

Grade B: Good
├─ Decent sales
├─ Decent margins
├─ Reasonable inventory
└─ Minor concerns

Grade C: Needs Attention
├─ Lower sales
├─ Thin margins
├─ Inventory issues (too high/low)
└─ Stockout risk or overstock risk

Grade D: Action Required
├─ Very low sales
├─ Low margins
├─ Serious inventory issues
└─ High stockout or major overstock

Find What Changed​

Step 1: Check your sales (2 minutes)

  • Did sales drop in last 7 days vs previous 7 days?
  • Check your sales dashboard or Shopify
  • If sales are down → That explains Grade change

Step 2: Check your margins (2 minutes)

  • Did profit margin decrease?
  • Check your cost/pricing settings
  • If margins tighter → That explains Grade change

Step 3: Check your inventory (2 minutes)

  • Do you have too much stock?
  • Do you have too little stock?
  • Is it right for your current sales rate?
  • If inventory wrong → That explains Grade change

Step 4: Check stockout risk (2 minutes)

  • How many days until you run out (Days to Stockout)?
  • Is it getting close (< 10 days)?
  • If stockout risk rising → That explains Grade change

Accept the Grade​

The grade is accurate.

It reflects your actual business situation.
├─ If you're selling less, Grade should be lower
├─ If you're carrying excess inventory, Grade should be lower
├─ If margins are tighter, Grade should be lower
└─ Grade is working correctly

Your Grade changed because something changed.
├─ Find out what it is
├─ Make business decisions
├─ Monitor Grade to see if it improves

Improve Your Grade​

To raise Grade from C back to A:

✅ Increase sales
   └─ Better marketing, new channels, etc.

✅ Improve margins
   └─ Negotiate better supplier costs, raise prices

✅ Right-size inventory
   └─ Order less if you're overstocked
   └─ Order more if you're understocked

✅ Reduce stockout risk
   └─ Place orders proactively per system recommendations

✅ Improve cash flow
   └─ Process payments faster, manage terms better

Problem 4: Sales at Risk Seems Huge​

Symptom​

"Sales at Risk shows $50,000. That seems wrong."

Example:
├─ Daily sales: $1,000
├─ Current on-hand: 5 units left
├─ Days to stockout: 5 days
├─ Sales at Risk: $50,000 (for 5 days × $10K/day)
└─ You think: "That's a lot, can't be right"

It's Real​

Sales at Risk is calculated as:

Sales at Risk = Daily Sales Revenue × Days to Stockout

Example:
├─ You sell $1,000/day in this product category
├─ You'll run out in 5 days
├─ $1,000 × 5 = $5,000 at risk
└─ That's real money you could lose

If daily sales are higher:
├─ Daily sales: $10,000
├─ Days to stockout: 5
├─ Sales at Risk: $50,000
└─ Yes, that's real

What It Means​

Sales at Risk tells you:

"If you don't order NOW, you'll stockout in X days
and lose $X in revenue"

This is an urgent signal:
├─ You have this many days to order
├─ Stock arrives in (lead time) days
├─ If lead time > days to stockout, you're in trouble
└─ ACTION: Order immediately per recommendation

Verify It's Real​

Step 1: Check daily sales (2 minutes)

  • Is your daily sales actually $10,000?
  • Or did you think it was $1,000?
  • Check your actual sales data
  • This is the biggest factor

Step 2: Check Days to Stockout (2 minutes)

  • Current on-hand ÷ Daily sales = Days left
  • Is it truly 5 days?
  • Or do you have more inventory?
  • Check your on-hand count

Step 3: Accept the number (1 minute)

  • If inputs are right, Sales at Risk is right
  • This is real money at risk
  • Use it as urgency signal to order

Take Action​

If Sales at Risk is high:

✅ Order immediately
   └─ Per the "To Buy" recommendation

✅ Expedite shipping if possible
   └─ Pay for rush if needed

✅ Alert your supplier
   └─ Let them know urgency

✅ Monitor Days to Stockout
   └─ Watch for running out

Problem 5: Safety Stock Seems Arbitrary​

Symptom​

"Why is Safety Stock 50 units? That seems random."

It's Calculated​

Safety Stock formula:

Safety Stock = 
   Service Level Factor × Standard Deviation of Demand

Example:
├─ You want 95% service level
├─ That equals 1.65 × demand variability
├─ If daily sales vary by 30 units
├─ 1.65 × 30 = 49.5 ≈ 50 units

It's not random, it's math.

What It Means​

Safety Stock answers:

"How much extra inventory do I need to keep
to not run out during random demand spikes?"

50 units means:
├─ If demand spikes beyond normal
├─ You still have buffer to meet it
├─ 95% chance you won't stockout
├─ (Or whatever service level you set)

Adjust If Needed​

Safety Stock inputs:

1. Service Level: How confident do you want to be?
   ├─ 95% = Rarely stockout, higher safety stock
   ├─ 90% = Acceptable stockouts occasional
   └─ 99% = Almost never stockout, very high safety stock

2. Demand Variability: How variable is demand?
   ├─ Stable demand = Low safety stock needed
   ├─ Volatile demand = High safety stock needed
   └─ Calculated from historical data

If safety stock seems too high:
├─ Option 1: Lower your service level (95% to 90%)
├─ Option 2: Accept that demand is variable
└─ Option 3: Try to stabilize demand

Problem 6: Multiple Metrics All Seem Wrong​

Symptom​

"Everything looks off. Multiple metrics seem wrong."

First Step: Check Underlying Data​

90% of time, issue is data, not metrics:

Step 1: Check if data is stale
├─ See: Connection & Data Status
├─ Trigger manual sync if > 24 hours old
├─ Wait for sync to complete
└─ Metrics recalculate with fresh data

Step 2: Check on-hand inventory
├─ Does Synplex match Shopify?
├─ They should be identical
├─ If different → Manual sync, then check again

Step 3: Check daily sales rate
├─ Does it match your actual average?
├─ Calculate: Last 30 days sales ÷ 30
├─ If different → Update your settings

Step 4: Check lead times
├─ Are they accurate for each supplier?
├─ Ask suppliers if unsure
├─ Old lead times = Wrong metrics

Then: Check Metric Definitions​

Once data is right, verify metric formulas:

Go to: Data Metrics Reference
├─ Find each metric that seems wrong
├─ Read the formula
├─ Trace through with your actual numbers
└─ Does the math check out?

Then: Accept or Adjust​

If everything checks out:

Metrics are correct.
├─ You might disagree with them
├─ But they're mathematically sound
├─ Based on correct inputs
└─ Accept and use them for decisions

If something is wrong:
├─ Fix the input
├─ Metric recalculates
├─ Should make sense now

Quick Verification Checklist​

Before assuming metric is wrong, verify:

☐ Data is fresh (< 24 hours old)
   └─ If stale, sync and recalculate

☐ On-hand inventory matches Shopify
   └─ If different, sync and verify

☐ Daily sales rate is accurate
   └─ Calculate: Last 30 days ÷ 30

☐ Lead time is correct
   └─ Confirm with supplier

☐ Safety stock setting is intentional
   └─ Or adjust if desired

☐ Metric formula is understood
   └─ Read it in Metrics Reference

☐ Math checks out with real numbers
   └─ Plug in your data, verify calculation

If all checked: Metric is correct.

When to Adjust Settings​

Adjust If:​

✅ Lead time changed
   └─ Updated supplier, now slower or faster

✅ Safety stock too high/low
   └─ Adjust your service level

✅ You want different metric behavior
   └─ Tweak the inputs to get desired output

Don't Adjust If:​

❌ You just don't like the metric
   └─ Accept it, it's probably right

❌ It doesn't match your intuition
   └─ Intuition often misses factors

❌ You want to hide bad news
   └─ Metrics show real situations

❌ To game the system
   └─ This will backfire

Key Insights​

1. Metrics are calculated, not guesses
   └─ They're based on formulas + your data

2. If metric seems wrong, check data first
   └─ 90% of "broken metrics" have bad data

3. If data is right, metric is right
   └─ Even if you don't like the number

4. Metrics are smarter than intuition
   └─ They account for factors you miss

5. Use metrics to make decisions
   └─ Don't argue with them, learn from them

6. You can adjust inputs
   └─ But understand why before changing

Bottom line: Metrics are usually right. Check your data first, understand the formula second, adjust settings third if truly needed.