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Adjusting Forecasts: When to Override Synplex

Synplex predicts future demand based on history. But you know things Synplex doesn't:

  • Promotion you're planning
  • Competitor action
  • Seasonal changes
  • New marketing campaign

Here's when and how to adjust.

When to Adjust Synplex Forecast​

Scenario 1: You're Planning a Promotion​

Situation:

Synplex forecast: 100 units/month (normal)
Your plan: 20% discount for 2 weeks in Feb
Expected impact: +50% sales during promo

What to do:

1. Go to: Demand tab → Select product → February
2. Current forecast: 100 units
3. Override to: 150 units (100 + 50% increase)
4. Reason: "Promotion Feb 10-20"
5. Result: Supply plan recalculates
   ├─ Higher inventory needed
   ├─ Earlier order recommended
   └─ PO quantity increases

Impact:

  • You have stock READY for promotion
  • No stockout during peak sales
  • No cash tied up in excess inventory after

Scenario 2: Competitor Just Launched​

Situation:

Synplex forecast: 100 units/month (steady)
Reality: Competitor launched cheaper version
Expected impact: -30% sales for 2-3 months

What to do:

1. Go to: Demand tab → Select product → Mar, Apr, May
2. Current forecast: 100 units each month
3. Override to: 70 units each month (100 × 70%)
4. Reason: "Competitor launched cheaper option"
5. Result: Supply plan recalculates
   ├─ Lower inventory needed
   ├─ Orders reduced/delayed
   └─ Avoid overstock in slow period

Impact:

  • Don't buy inventory you can't sell
  • Save cash during competitor threat
  • Can reassess in 3 months if sales stabilize

Scenario 3: Seasonal Spike Coming​

Situation:

Synplex forecast: Winter Jacket 100 units/month baseline
Reality: October = peak season (historically 2x demand)

What to do:

1. Go to: Demand tab → Select Winter Jacket → Oct, Nov, Dec
2. Oct current forecast: 100 units
3. Override to: 200 units (historical 2x peak)
4. Nov override to: 180 units (peak but declining)
5. Dec override to: 150 units (still high but lower)
6. Reason: "Seasonal peak Oct-Dec"
7. Result: Supply plan shows:
   ├─ Massive order needed by Sep 1
   ├─ Second order by Nov 1
   └─ Inventory management adjusted for seasonality

Impact:

  • You won't get blindsided by seasonal surge
  • Stock arrives before peak demand
  • No stockouts during highest-sales weeks

Scenario 4: New Marketing Campaign​

Situation:

Synplex forecast: Blue T-Shirt 50 units/month
Your plan: TikTok campaign starting next month
Expected impact: +100% awareness, +25% sales

What to do:

1. Go to: Demand tab → Select Blue T-Shirt → Month after campaign
2. Current forecast: 50 units
3. Override to: 62 units (50 × 1.25)
4. Reason: "TikTok campaign impact"
5. Also override next 2 months (campaign runs 8 weeks)
6. Result: Supply plan shows higher demand
   ├─ Order timing adjusted
   ├─ Quantity increased
   └─ You're ready for campaign surge

Impact:

  • When campaign launches, you have stock
  • No "out of stock" messages during visibility peak
  • Sales aren't limited by inventory

Scenario 5: Retail Location Opening​

Situation:

Synplex forecast: Winter Jacket 100 units/month (1 location)
Your plan: Opening 2nd retail store
Expected impact: +50% volume (2 stores vs. 1)

What to do:

1. Go to: Demand tab → Select Winter Jacket → All future months
2. Increase forecast by 50% for all months from opening date forward
3. Reason: "2nd retail store opening March 1"
4. Result: Supply plan shows:
   ├─ Significant inventory increase needed
   ├─ Orders must arrive before grand opening
   └─ New supplier capacity may be needed

Impact:

  • Plan for growth, don't get caught short
  • Suppliers get advance notice
  • Negotiate better rates for higher volume

When NOT to Adjust​

❌ "Last Month Was Bad"​

Bad reason to adjust:
├─ "January sales were 20% below forecast"
├─ "I'm going to lower forecast for February too"
└─ Problem: Could be one-off, not a trend!

What to do instead:
├─ Watch February in real-time
├─ If February is also low → THEN adjust future months
├─ One month ≠ trend

❌ "I Feel Lucky"​

Bad reason to adjust:
├─ "I have a good feeling sales will spike"
├─ "No data, just intuition"
└─ Problem: Risky, not repeatable

What to do instead:
├─ Base adjustments on specific events
├─ Not feelings or hunches
├─ Reason: "Promotion Feb 10-20" (YES)
├─ Reason: "I think it'll do well" (NO)

❌ "Match Our Sales Target"​

Bad reason to adjust:
├─ "Sales target is $500K this month"
├─ "I'll adjust forecast to hit that number"
└─ Problem: Forecast should predict reality, not goals!

What to do instead:
├─ Keep forecast realistic
├─ If target > forecast: Find ways to increase actual sales
├─ Don't adjust numbers to match targets

How to Adjust in Synplex​

Step-by-Step: Manual Override​

Step 1: Dashboard
└─ Click: Demand Planning tab

Step 2: Select Product
└─ Find product you want to adjust

Step 3: Select Month
└─ Click on month you want to override

Step 4: Override Forecast
├─ Current forecast shows: [100 units]
├─ Click: [Edit] or [Override]
├─ Enter new number: [150 units]
└─ Enter reason: "Promotion planned Feb 10-20"

Step 5: Confirm
└─ Click: [Save]

Step 6: Watch Supply Plan Update
└─ Go to Supply Plan tab
└─ Recommended orders changed!

Step-by-Step: Bulk Upload​

If adjusting MANY products:

Step 1: Go to Demand tab
Step 2: Click: [Import Forecast]
Step 3: Download template (CSV)
Step 4: Edit in Excel:
├─ Product ID, Month, New Forecast
├─ Example:
│  ├─ JACKET-001, 2026-01, 200
│  ├─ JACKET-001, 2026-02, 180
│  └─ TSHIRT-001, 2026-02, 150
Step 5: Upload back to Synplex
Step 6: Review changes
Step 7: Confirm import

Step-by-Step: By Season (Recurring)​

For seasonal products (Winter Jacket):

Step 1: Define seasonal pattern
├─ Jan-Feb: 2x baseline (peak)
├─ Mar-Apr: 1.5x baseline (declining)
├─ May-Sep: 0.3x baseline (off-season)
└─ Oct-Dec: 1.8x baseline (returning peak)

Step 2: In Synplex
└─ Set seasonal adjustment factors
└─ Synplex automatically applies each year

Step 3: Review annually
└─ Did pattern hold true?
└─ Update factors if trend changed

Real Example: Winter Jacket Promotion​

Current Situation​

Product: Winter Jacket Black M
Current forecast: 100 units/month (baseline)
On-hand: 200 units
Supplier lead time: 45 days
Safety stock: 15 days

Decision: 30% Off Sale in February​

Plan:
├─ Sale dates: Feb 10-28
├─ Discount: 30% off
├─ Expected impact: 2x normal demand for 3 weeks
├─ Then: 20% below normal after sale (pent-up demand spent)

Forecast Adjustment​

January: Keep at 100 units (no change)
   ├─ Reason: Normal month
   └─ Action: Order normally

February: Increase to 200 units (2x)
   ├─ Reason: "30% sale Feb 10-28, expect 2x demand"
   └─ Action: ORDER ASAP (need by Feb 10)

March: Decrease to 80 units (20% below normal)
   ├─ Reason: "Post-sale pullback, pent demand spent"
   └─ Action: Reduce next order

April: Back to 100 units (baseline resumes)
   ├─ Reason: "Normal pattern resumes"
   └─ Action: Normal ordering

Supply Plan Impact​

BEFORE adjustments:
├─ Jan: Order 100 units (Jan 1, arrive Feb 15)
├─ Feb: Order 100 units (Feb 1, arrive Mar 15)
├─ Mar: Order 100 units (Mar 1, arrive Apr 15)
└─ On-hand in Feb: Only 200 + 100 = 300 units (too low!)

AFTER adjustments:
├─ Dec: Order 200 units (Dec 1, arrive Jan 15) ← EMERGENCY!
├─ Jan: Order 200 units (Jan 1, arrive Feb 15) ← EXTRA!
├─ Feb: Order 100 units (Feb 1, arrive Mar 15)
├─ Mar: Order 80 units (Mar 1, arrive Apr 15)
└─ On-hand in Feb: 200 + 100 + 200 = 500 units (ready for sale!)

Result​

  • Sale succeeds, no stockout
  • Customers can buy throughout Feb 10-28
  • After sale, you're not stuck with excess (March forecast is lower)
  • You hit revenue target for the month

Tips for Effective Adjustments​

Tip 1: Document Your Reasons​

When you adjust forecast, ALWAYS write the reason:
├─ "Promotion Feb 10-20" (clear)
├─ "Competitor launched" (clear)
├─ "Seasonal peak Oct-Dec" (clear)
├─ "Just because" (NOT clear!)

Why this matters:
├─ You'll review this in 3 months
├─ Need to remember WHY you adjusted
├─ Helps you learn what to adjust next time

Tip 2: Adjust Early (Not Late)​

If you KNOW sale is coming:
├─ Adjust forecast NOW (weeks in advance)
├─ Supply plan shows adjusted orders
├─ You place orders BEFORE deadline
├─ Goods arrive ON TIME

If you adjust AFTER deadline:
├─ Supply plan shows need, but too late
├─ Can't get goods to arrive in time
├─ Stockout anyway
└─ Adjustment was pointless!

Tip 3: Be Conservative with New Initiatives​

New promotion (first time):
├─ If you forecast 100 + 50% = 150
├─ Actually adjust to 120 (conservative)
├─ Reason: First promotion, don't know exactly how much

Why?
├─ If it goes over: You learn for next time
├─ If it goes under: Not stuck with huge overstock
├─ Better to miss some sales than have excess inventory

Second time around:
├─ Data point from first promotion
├─ Can forecast more accurately
└─ Adjust more aggressively if it worked

Tip 4: Review Results Monthly​

After promotion, after seasonal change, etc:
├─ Go back to forecast
├─ Actual sales: 180 units (vs. adjusted forecast of 150)
├─ Note: "Promotion worked better than expected"
├─ Learning: "For next promo, increase estimate by 20%"

This creates a feedback loop:
├─ Adjust → Observe → Learn → Better adjustment next time
└─ Your forecasts improve over time

FAQ​

Q: Can I adjust individual days, or only months?

A: By month is standard. If you need daily adjustments, that's very granular (most apps don't support this).

Q: What if I adjust and then change my mind?

A: You can override again to new number. Synplex keeps history (can see what you changed).

Q: If I adjust forecast, do my customers see this?

A: No. Adjustments are internal planning. Affects what you order, not what customers see.

Q: How often should I adjust?

A: Only when something specific changes:

  • Promotion planned
  • Competitor action
  • Seasonal shift
  • New store opening

Not: Every week based on feeling.

Q: Can I set up automatic adjustments?

A: Depends on Synplex features. Ask support if "rules-based adjustments" are available (e.g., "Always 2x in Dec").

Next Steps​

  1. Identify upcoming events: Promotion? Seasonal change? New store?
  2. Open Demand tab in Synplex
  3. Adjust forecast for affected months
  4. Check Supply Plan: Did recommendations change?
  5. Create POs: For adjusted quantities
  6. Document: Why you adjusted (for learning)

Questions? Contact support@synplex.io